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| | 顶流经济学家这样研判中国当前经济形势 | | | 中国经济周刊 ｜ 2023-07-17 | | | |
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7月17日，国家统计局发布的中国经济“半年报”显示：今年上半年国内生产总值593034亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.5%，比一季度加快1个百分点。
分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长4.5%，二季度增长 6.3%。
总的来看，上半年，随着经济社会全面恢复常态化运行，宏观政策显效发力，国民经济回升向好，高质量发展稳步推进。
同时也要看到，世界政治经济形势错综复杂，国内经济持续恢复发展的基础仍不稳固。如何看待当前我国的经济状况？我国经济前景到底如何？
经济运行延续恢复态势，上半年动力略显不足
一季度GDP增长4.5%，这一数据远高于2022年底市场的一致预期。但是进入二季度之后，各项经济数据均有所放缓，通胀指标明显走弱，内生需求不足的问题凸显。尤其是5月，一些生产需求主要指标同比增速有所回落。
上海财经大学校长刘元春日前接受中国金融四十人论坛访谈时表示，综合同比和环比数据来看，当前确实存在有效需求不足带来的内生动力不足问题。而有效需求不足的一个直观表现是价格疲软，价格的持续疲软需要引起高度重视。
国家统计局数据显示，6月份，CPI同比持平，环比下降0.2%。国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟7月10日解读称，从环比看，CPI下降0.2%，降幅与上月相同；从同比看，CPI由上月上涨0.2%转为持平。
“当前，CPI涨幅总体低位运行，核心CPI涨幅也处于较低水平，是受到国际环境复杂严峻、世界经济低迷、国内需求仍显不足，以及上年同期基数较高等多重因素影响，总的来看是阶段性的。”国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖说。
从投资看，亦不乐观。国家统计局数据显示，上半年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）243113亿元，同比增长3.8%，民间投资则下降0.2%。
从三大领域固定资产投资看，投资增速也在不同程度地回落：上半年，基础设施投资同比增长7.2%，增速比一季度回落1.6个百分点；制造业投资增长6.0%，增速比一季度回落1.0个百分点；房地产开发投资下降7.9%，降幅比一季度扩大2.1个百分点。
“上半年固定资产投资有关指标增速回落，说明确实存在经济内生动力不足的问题。”北京大学国家发展研究院特约研究员许宪春接受《中国经济周刊》记者采访时表示，内生动力不强的短期表现，是总需求不足；中长期表现在供给端，结构性矛盾比较突出。
4月28日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，“经济运行实现良好开局”，但“内生动力还不强，需求仍然不足”“推动高质量发展仍需要克服不少困难挑战”。
针对当前经济面临的需求不足、内生动力不强等问题，会议强调，恢复和扩大需求是当前经济持续回升向好的关键所在。积极的财政政策要加力提效，稳健的货币政策要精准有力，形成扩大需求的合力。
当前经济复苏进程并未中断
上半年相关经济数据回落，是否意味着经济复苏进程的中断，成为众所关注的焦点。学者对此问题的看法基本一致。
“当前经济复苏进程并未中断，但恢复的斜率可能比很多人预期的要慢一些。”中国社会科学院经济研究所所长黄群慧接受《中国经济周刊》记者采访表示。
中国财政科学研究院院长刘尚希向《中国经济周刊》记者表示，在不确定性中复苏是当前经济的基本特征，其中包括了两个关键词：不确定性和复苏。“不确定性”是指复苏环境的不确定性并未持续收敛；“复苏”是指我们正在努力摆脱三年来全球疫情等因素综合造成的负面影响，推动经济回归正常轨道。
中泰证券股份有限公司首席经济学家李迅雷接受《中国经济周刊》记者采访时亦认为，上半年整体经济仍处于复苏当中，只是复苏的程度相对而言比预期要弱。
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