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| | 美联储明年首次降息时点提前 | | | 华尔街观察 ｜ 2023-12-11 | | | |
| 声明： 本消息或因风格和篇幅原因进行过编辑，但未经核实，也不代表我们的立场、观点或建议。如有侵权，联系秒删。[ 使用条款 ] |
scroll 0 1 高盛将美联储首次降息的时间预测推迟从明年第四季度提前到第三季度，理由是通胀压力减弱。
高盛经济学家Jan Hatzius在最新的报告中表示，修改美联储首次降息时点的预期，并不反映任何重大观点转变，只是反映了之前给出的降息门槛可以更早地触及。高盛认为，降息门槛包括：核心个人消费支出同比2.5%增幅，以及可接受的通胀预期和工资增长水平。
高盛目前预测美联储到2024年底将降息95个基点，与之相比，当前的市场定价约为110个基点。经济学家们预计，美联储官员们给出的联邦基金利率的中值预测将显示，在2024年降息两次，2025年降息125个基点，2026年降息100个基点；经济学家们还认为美联储的中性利率仅为略高于2.56%。
上周五的美国非农就业数据意外强劲，引发了市场对美联储利率政策的重新定价，掉期合约最新显示，投资者们认为明年3月份降息的可能性不大，也即更高的利率会维持更久的时间。
高盛资产管理部门（GSAM）多资产解决方案副首席投资官Wilson-Elizondo指出，上述利率重定价，也恰逢美股自10月起已连续数周反弹，可能意味着股市接下来的上涨会受到限制。然而高盛认为，如果美股未来下跌，则代表着买入机会，任何回调都是假象，如果美股先下跌，之后将迅速反转。
Wilson-Elizondo表示，现在就持有太少的风险类资产股票，还为时过早。高盛经济学家们预计的美联储将于2024年下半年开始降息，叠加经济增长和通胀下降，这应该会对股市，尤其是大盘股构成支撑。“我们确实相信，在这些类型的环境中，高质量和大盘股往往会跑赢，尽管估值有些高，但相信这些股票还有上涨的空间。”
然而尽管最近小盘股上涨强势，但Wilson-Elizondo称不会追涨，因为这类股票在利率周期的后期阶段往往表现不佳。
对于美债市场，高盛对明年初的利率持“谨慎的建设性态度”，并预计投资者将把资金重新配置到收益率曲线的长期端。涌入长期美债的资金来自高达8万亿美元的货币市场基金。
高盛上述对美股偏乐观的看法，与美银知名经济学家Hartnett不同。Hartnett认为，市场核心逻辑将很快变化，市场核心逻辑很快将从四季度的“软着陆”（即坏消息就是好消息，美债收益率下行=美股走高），转向一季度的“硬着陆”（坏消息就是坏消息，美债收益率下行=美股下跌），尤其是如果美联储确实准备最早在3月份降息的话。
“新美联储通讯社”最新撰文称，美联储本周、以及未来数月，都不太可能认真讨论降息。Timiraos认为，美联储只可能在两种情况下开始降息，一是在经济继续放缓且失业率上升速度超过预期的情况下，二是在经济表现良好但通胀超预期降温的情况下。 0 | | | |
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