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| | 利率下行时，如何赚估值抬升的钱？ | | | 华尔街日报 ｜ 2025-03-26 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 广发证券指出，在利率下行的大部分时间里，市场估值倾向于回落，能抬估值的都是稳定类资产；而在利率下行的尾声，市场可能系统性抬估值，方向是抢跑景气类资产，此时稳定类资产反而未能有超额收益。
利率下行带来估值抬升的黄金时期一般发生在流动性极度宽松、经济企稳但未显著复苏的环境中。随着中国十年期国债利率从3.2%降至1.6%的历史性下行，投资者面临一个关键问题：这次能否赚到估值抬升的钱？
广发证券刘晨明团队周一梳理发现，历史上A股在利率下行初期估值反而下跌，只有在下行末期才出现系统性抬升。更重要的是，不同行业的表现高度分化，在国债利率下降至1.6%时，景气度驱动的TMT板块领跑，而非传统防御性板块。
A股市场的利率下行交易策略
回顾A股历史，广发证券发现，国债利率从3.2%降至2.2%期间，市场估值整体下滑，只有公用事业、煤炭等防御性板块估值提升；而当利率进一步降至1.6%后，市场开始系统性抬估值，以TMT为代表的景气板块表现突出，防御板块反而表现不佳。
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报告写道：“在利率下行的大部分时间里，市场估值倾向于回落，能抬估值的都是稳定类资产；而在利率下行的尾声，市场可能系统性抬估值，方向是抢跑景气类资产，此时稳定类资产反而未能有超额收益。”
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利率下行时，如何赚估值抬升的钱？
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