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scroll 0 1 英语里有一句话：“If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.”
以逼迫乌克兰同意停火为由，川普停止了对乌克兰的情报分享。就在几天内，俄军特种部队通过废弃的输油管潜入乌军后方，一举收复了乌军占领的库尔斯克重镇苏甲，乌军不得不沿着一条公路仓皇后撤，沿途遭到早已准备好的俄军的炮火、无人机、空军的打击，损失上百辆战斗车辆，公路上和附近的田野里处是乌军战士的尸体。这样的奇袭不可能在几天之内就准备好的，特种部队要训练，其他炮兵、无人机部队、空军要协调准备，怎么会恰恰在美军停止分享情报的那几天发生？美俄协调得如此周密，二战时盟军之间协调也不过如此。
再看川普促成的对能源设施的停火。乌军因爲有美欧的先进防空导弹，和非常发达的无人机侦测和击落系统，俄军对乌克兰能源设施的攻击收效非常有限。乌克兰进入春天，就算发电厂受到损坏，对国计民生的影响也非常有限。而俄军对乌克兰无人机大举袭击石油设施却无计可施。他们不是一架都打不下来，他们能打下一大部分，但他们使用的导弹比乌克兰的无人机还贵，而且无法全部击落。
乌军的无人机里有大量是诱饵机，等目标地点附件的俄军导弹耗尽后真正的炸弹机再炸毁石油设施。我在以前的文章里就説过，乌军对俄国石油设施的无人机轰炸对俄国造成生死威胁，因爲俄国的外汇收入是其维持战争的唯一手段，而石油输出是其唯一的外汇收入。
所以川普才逼乌克兰停止袭击俄国能源设施。
衆所周知，没有海军的乌克兰通过导弹和无人艇消灭了俄军黑海舰队的一大半，剩馀舰隻龟缩进最远的俄国港口。所以俄军黑海舰队已经在实质上不存在，乌克兰通过敖德萨的海上运输綫完全畅通。所以乌克兰此时完完全全不需要黑海停火。而俄军则非常需要黑海停火，这样他们就可以重新使用克里米亚的军港，修复其设施，重新部署其海军，等一切准备完毕，就切断乌克兰通过敖德萨的海上出口命脉，甚至占领该港口。
所以川普才逼乌克兰停止袭击俄军黑海目标。
普京什么让步都没有做出，就赢得了能源设施和黑海二个大胜，同时，美国已经准备解禁俄国银行并鼓励美国公司回到俄国。
而且，就在普京欢快地答应停止袭击能源设施后三个小时，俄军就再次袭击了乌克兰的能源设施。
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