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| | 人口减房价跌，高盛的预测很悲观 | | | 大纪元 ｜ 2025-06-17 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 周一（6月16日），高盛集团表示，由于人口减少以及房价下跌预期持续影响投资兴趣，预计未来几年中国城镇新建住宅需求将比2017年峰值低75%。这家美国投资银行的悲观预测，给中国停滞不前房地产行业的未来蒙上另一层阴影。
据报道，高盛分析师在一份报告中写道：“人口下降和城镇化放缓，表明人口对住房的需求正在下降。随着业主出售空置公寓，中国的投资需求可能会转为负值。”
因此，他们表示，未来几年中国城镇新建住宅的年需求量可能将略低于500万套，远低于2017年2,000万套的峰值。
多年来，中国房地产行业一直深陷供应过剩的泥潭，债台高筑。房地产行业曾占中国经济总量的近五分之一。
周一，中共官方数据显示，中国5月份新房价格跌幅创七个月新高，表明去年9月刺激计划的效应正在消退。中共国家统计局周一公布的数据显示，剔除保障性住房后，全国70个大中城市的新房价格较4月份下跌0.22%，而4月份的跌幅为0.12%，表明自2023年5月以来持续的零增长趋势仍在延续。
高盛经济学家安德鲁‧蒂尔顿（Andrew Tilton ）和惠珊（Hui Shan）等人援引自身计算结果表示，中国城镇居民的年度住房需求将在十年内减少约一半，从2010年代每年940万套，降至2025―2030年平均每年410万套。
报告称，随着房价预期下降，投资性房地产的持有者在可预见的未来可能会成为净卖家。
尽管中美之间达成了关税休战协议，但并未明显提振中国经济。在房价下行背景下，企业利润和员工收入受到压缩，导致购房需求受到抑制，使得政策制定者面临重启市场活力的挑战。
在4月份进行的一项涵盖2,500名受访者的调查中，瑞银发现人们对房价进一步下跌的预期仍然偏高。分析师警告称，这种预期可能继续抑制购房行为，并在未来几个季度对市场活跃度产生负面影响。
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