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| | labubu现象见顶的几个信号 | | | 华尔街日报 ï½ 2025-06-19 | | | |
| 声明： 本消息或因风格和篇幅原因进行过编辑，但未经核实，也不代表我们的立场、观点或建议。如有侵权，联系秒删。[ 使用条款 ] |
scroll 0 1 买在无人问津时，卖在人声鼎沸时？
在我们前一篇通缩中的情绪价值文章中对于今年爆火的新消费从精神消费的角度进行了深度剖析，泡泡玛特、老铺、蜜雪等共同点不在于经典意义上的“吉芬效应”，而是用最低可承受的成本满足阶层向上的身份想象——一种广义的“身份经济学”。三家公司的核心属性——它们都在用极低门槛的花费，让消费者买到“身份感”。
LABUBU现象，从我们第一次讨论时的仅在社交媒体上火爆到现在，几乎成了LABUBU everywhere了。传统媒体铺天盖地的关于LABUBU的新闻，就连海关查获了多少个LABUBU都会在各个微信群里面转发，有进口的正品，也有出口的祖国版。
我身边有很多潮玩的玩家，也有潮玩从业的朋友，因此我也算是略微熟悉潮玩行业的。LABUBU的现象，给我想起来的第一个记忆，就是同为潮玩的暴力熊Be@rbrick。当初的暴力熊也是几乎每个网红家里必须放着两个，不然你都不能算是顶流。就连发小家里装修完发图，我都能看到家里专门有位置放着两个暴力熊。然后就越来越多，从一开始觉得哇塞好酷啊，到后面真真假假，直到最后，暴力熊，我也不在乎这是真货还是假货，反正无感。
而再往前，则是美国念书时候同学人手一双Yeeze Boost，逐步扩散到后面的AJ，倒勾等一系列鞋子。炒鞋从一开始的很多年轻人的爱好变得可牟利，最后一度成为不少年轻人的主要收入来源。最典型的就是发小的弟弟从炒鞋到无鞋可炒逐步转型为奢侈品买手。
之后就是球星卡（陈冠希就很爱这东西，他也是潮玩icon了吧）。到后面的NFT，币圈的狂欢，当时一个头像几万几十万美金，甚至让SOL成为和ETH一样的大的链。这些现象，都跟郁金香一样一阵风起然后也消散的悄无声息。所以，当前的LABUBU，在我们看来跟暴力熊、AJ鞋没太大差别，怎么炒上去，炒的多么疯狂，后面就会怎么下来，只不过是什么时候而已。
复盘4类「年轻人炒作资产」见顶时的共性信号
4类，就是前文提到的暴力熊Be@rbrick、炒鞋、球星卡和NFT，他们过去见顶时候都出现过非常相似的信号，高度概括的话信号归为四类：热度、供给、价格和衍生玩法。详细拆分的话，分为5个维度，我们一个个拆开来看。
1、媒体&搜索热度率先见顶 → 情绪弧线进入“关注饱和”。
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2、生产方趁高价大幅放货 → 排队时间缩短、二级挂牌量激增。
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labubu现象见顶的几个信号
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点击朱笔，直抒胸臆