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| | 高盛策略师：标普明年指向7600点 | | | 华尔街日报 ｜ 2025-12-12 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 高盛集团策略师预测，随着人工智能技术的广泛应用以及美国经济增长保持韧性，美国明年将再创新高，企业盈利预计将出现两位数的跃升。
由Ben Snider领导的高盛团队在最新报告中指出，预计标普500指数成份股公司的每股收益将在明年跳升12%，并在2027年进一步增长10%。基于盈利预期的改善，该行重申了标普500指数明年将在7600点左右交易的目标位，这意味着美股较当前水平仍有约10%的上涨空间。
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这一乐观展望得到了华尔街多家主要机构的呼应，据彭博报道，Morgan Stanley、Deutsche Bank AG和RBC Capital Markets LLC的策略师团队均预计美股将在2026年实现超过10%的涨幅。尽管市场对人工智能巨额支出可能引发泡沫仍存担忧，但投资者对经济前景的信心正推动主要股指不断刷新纪录。
Ben Snider将于今年年底接替David Kostin出任高盛首席美国股票策略师，他强调大型科技公司将继续领跑，而关税拖累的减弱以及健康的收入增长将共同支撑市场的强劲表现。
AI生产力红利初现
高盛团队的预测模型显示，人工智能驱动的生产力提升正在逐步转化为实际的企业利润。在预计明年12%的每股收益增长中，AI带来的生产力提升将贡献约0.4个百分点；而在2027年10%的增长预期中，AI的贡献率将扩大至1.5个百分点。
Ben Snider在报告中写道，人工智能的采用目前仍处于早期阶段，但大型公司迄今报告的进展明显快于小型企业。他预计，得益于健康的基准营收增长、关税带来的负面影响逐渐消退，以及指数中权重股持续强劲的盈利能力，美股基本面将保持稳健。
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