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| | 哈梅内伊之子更敢拥核？ | | | 列国漫游 ｜ 2026-07-26 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 伊朗核问题可能正在出现一个危险的新变量。
据报道，美国情报机构评估认为，伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊在是否发展核武器的问题上，可能比父亲阿里·哈梅内伊更加激进，也更愿意考虑真正迈向“拥核”。
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这份评估主要依据战争爆发前截获的通信等情报材料。美国官员同时强调，这并不是穆杰塔巴上台后获得的新情报，而是情报机构根据此前掌握的信息，对他的立场进行重新判断。
阿里·哈梅内伊已在2月28日战争爆发之初的美以联合空袭中身亡。长期以来，虽然西方一直怀疑伊朗核计划并非完全出于民用目的，但阿里·哈梅内伊在是否真正制造核武器的问题上，被认为始终保持一定程度的谨慎。
如今，美国情报部门认为，这种谨慎可能正在减弱。
伊朗国内“必须拥核”的声音正在变强
按照目前美方的判断，伊朗内部主张建立核威慑力量的派别影响力明显上升。
这些人的逻辑很直接：如果伊朗拥有核武器，美国和以色列未来再次发动大规模军事行动时，就必须承担更高风险。
换句话说，过去伊朗讨论核武器时，更多考虑的是外交制裁和国际孤立的代价；而经历战争之后，越来越多强硬派开始把核武器视为一种“防止下一场战争”的终极保险。
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