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| | 日本正在把全球“拖下水” | | | 华尔街日报 ｜ 2026-09-09 | | | |
| 声明： 本消息或因风格和篇幅原因进行过编辑，但未经核实，也不代表我们的立场、观点或建议。如有侵权，联系秒删。[ 使用条款 ] |
scroll 0 1 日本30年来首次突破3%的国债收益率正在引发全球警报，野村表示，这轮全球长端利率上行的震源正是日本本土——财政扩张失控、央行加息预期叠加，财政风险溢价已成最大推手。更令市场警惕的是，日债收益率持续攀升不仅威胁全球金融机构资产负债表，更可能刺破AI科技股泡沫，引爆一场突发性经济减速。
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日本国债收益率30年来首次突破3%，野村研究所警告，这一轮全球长端利率上行的源头正是日本，而非外部输入。日本财政风险与货币政策正常化预期的叠加，正通过债券市场向全球蔓延，对科技股、AI投资乃至实体经济构成系统性威胁。
10年期日本国债（JGB）收益率在东京市场盘中一度突破3.0%，为1996年9月以来首次。据追风交易台，野村研究所执行经济学家Takahide Kiuchi在最新报告中指出，过去一年10年期日债收益率累计上行约1.4个百分点，同期美国10年期国债收益率的涨幅仅约为日本的一半，这表明日债收益率的上行主要由国内因素驱动，而非受海外市场传导。
Takahide Kiuchi认为，从收益率绝对水平来看，日债已创30年新高，而美债仅回到2025年1月以来高位，德国10年期国债收益率为2011年以来最高，英国10年期国债收益率为2008年以来最高。综合比较，日本更可能是推动全球长端利率上行的源头，而非被动跟随者。与此同时，特朗普政府已开始罕见地介入日本经济政策，向日本央行施压加息、向高市政府施压收缩财政扩张。
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