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| | 睡猪圈的日本间谍，铺就了甲午战争清朝的败局 | | | 南方周末 ｜ 2026-09-14 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 甲午战争不是一段历史的终点，而是20世纪东亚连绵动荡的开端。战争的胜负并非简单的军事对决，而是两套体系改革转型成果的碰撞。
在2026年出版的《甲午：摇摆的战争》中，历史学者、“东亚观察局”“忽左忽右”“边角聊”等播客节目的主播和常驻嘉宾沙青青从中日两国情报、外交、舆论、政治和国际视角重新审视战场内外，把这场看似大众熟知的战争重新放回历史的混沌之中。
手握淮军和北洋水师的李鸿章，陷入“有宰相之名，无宰相之实”的困境。朝堂之上，光绪皇帝锐意主战、慈禧忙着过一个好生日、清流纸上谈兵，整个清政府没有统一的战争指挥体系。战争的胜负，早在开战之前就已注定。
日本决策层对开战同样有过犹豫，但倒幕开国后脱胎换骨的自我改造，以及对扩张的长期准备，让日本得以高效调度谍报、外交、舆论资源配合军事行动，赢得了一场毫无悬念的胜利。而举国之力豪赌的冒险成功，带来的只是不满足的怨气和再赌一把的执念。
“对华重大方针几全以宗方报告为资料”
1887年4月11日夜，江苏太仓的一家旅店迎来了两个剃头留辫、看上去跟其他中国人没什么大不同的旅客。
伙计问他们是哪里人，其中一人说是“福建”。伙计见识过不少南来北往的客人，觉得不对劲，当即反问：“我久交闽人，能解其语言，今客之话调毫不似闽人，何也？”
这时，另一名旅客颇为从容地答道：“我们本是福建人，少时移居上海，今将垂二十年矣，故话调全变，不能执乡音矣。”
伙计听罢，没再多想。他不会想到，眼前两个操着奇怪口音的旅客是两名日本间谍。那个解释自己为什么口音奇怪的人，是日本在清帝国的情报网中最为成功、甚至可以说影响了后来甲午战争走向的间谍----宗方小太郎。
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睡猪圈的日本间谍，铺就了甲午战争清朝的败局
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