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| | 别管什么AI末日了，真正的威胁就在眼前 | | | 华尔街日报 ｜ 2026-09-17 | | | |
| 声明： 本消息或因风格和篇幅原因进行过编辑，但未经核实，也不代表我们的立场、观点或建议。如有侵权，联系秒删。[ 使用条款 ] |
scroll 0 1 有充分且令人担忧的证据表明，人工智能(AI)可以协助人类作恶，例如实施网络攻击、制造武器，甚至自杀或杀人。Hugging Face遭黑客攻击的事件，以及越来越多由缺乏约束的智能体发起的其他攻击，都表明AI已在短时间内变得极为强大，且蕴含潜在危险。
然而，美国AI行业内的许多人坚称，由于具备超人类和自我改进能力的AI即将问世，更糟糕的情况还在后头。
许多专家对此持怀疑态度，其中包括不少专门研究AI危害的学者。所谓的“末日论者”断言AI可能会决定消灭全人类，或者哪怕“仅仅是”颠覆人类文明，但这种假设的前提是AI的发展速度达到前所未有的水平。
如果这种全球末日情景背后的假设是错误的，可能会导致我们在限制或监管AI时偏离方向，无法解决其真正的危害。
这场辩论的核心在于一种说法，即现有的AI系统可能会接管训练下一代版本的任务，这一过程被称为“递归自我改进”。可以将其想象为一种打了强心剂的物种进化：数十亿年的演化历程在庞大的AI超级计算机中以光速完成。Anthropic首席执行官达里奥・阿莫迪(Dario Amodei)最近提议达成一项全球协议，旨在放缓发布新AI模型的步伐，从而推迟递归自我改进的到来。
“我不认为我们已经接近‘通用人工智能’，”非营利研究机构圣塔菲研究所(Santa Fe Institute)研究AI的教授梅兰妮・米切尔(Melanie Mitchell)说。她表示，AI正取得令人瞩目的进步，但她认为工程师们声称已实现递归自我改进的说法经不起审视。
持这种观点的远不止米切尔一人。普林斯顿大学(Princeton)、斯坦福大学(Stanford)及其他机构的20多位学者最近发表的一篇论文认为，即使是最尖端的AI，也无法进行推动AI前沿发展所需的原创性研究。
参与撰写该论文的两名作者也对一种观点泼了冷水，即OpenAI智能体对Hugging Face发起的群组黑客攻击源于AI智能的突破。他们写道，这次攻击之所以成功，主要是因为缺乏基本的技术护栏，而不是AI能力出现了难以控制的爆发。
Meta前首席AI科学家杨立昆(Yann LeCun)发帖称，这一分析“为一场原本疯狂的辩论注入了难得的理性”。
OpenAI和Anthropic没有回复数次置评请求。
Click for Sound《华尔街日报》记者Amrith Ramkumar详细剖析了OpenAI等公司的AI模型如何为达成训练目标而突破测试环境，失控闯入互联网并窃取信息。这些事件对企业界和美国的AI监管政策而言意味着什么?封面图片来源：Jason Redmond/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
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别管什么AI末日了，真正的威胁就在眼前
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