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| | 川习会前局势逆转：川普居下风，习不让步 | | | 经济日报 ｜ 2026-09-21 | | | |
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scroll 0 1 川习会24日将在华盛顿举行，距离美中领导人上次会晤仅四个月，但双方处境明显逆转，中国对外贸易激增，川普却因伊朗战事与支持率下滑而备受牵制。
路透引述分析人士指出，美中情势此消彼长，已降低外界对峰会取得重大突破的期待。习近平目前占据较有利位置，并不急于让步；台湾、贸易休兵及伊朗战事，将成为双方角力焦点。
这场峰会的焦点，在于双方是否同意延长去年达成的贸易休兵。白宫已淡化取得重大突破的可能性。美国财长贝森特与中国国务院副总理何立峰周日在纽约先行展开磋商，试图就AI规范与非敏感商品贸易等潜在协议铺路。
曾任美国国家安全会议中国事务主任、现为布鲁金斯研究所外交政策专家的席恩（Jon Czin）表示，习近平未必追求具体成果，而是希望延长与川普之间的君子协定，为中国强化自身实力争取时间。
川普2025年重返白宫时，曾誓言以关税扭转美中贸易失衡，但自同年10月与习近平达成休战以来，川普的注意力已被伊朗、乌克兰战争，以及与欧洲的争端所分散。
中国虽面临内需疲弱与房市危机，全球贸易顺差仍可望连续第二年突破1兆美元。今年迄今，中国输美约6,500个产品类别，有超过一半的出口额高于2025年。
华府智库战略暨国际研究中心（CSIS）美中经济关系专家甘思德（Scott Kennedy）说，川普政府原以为能靠庞大的单边压力迫使中国让步，结果并未发生，“现在这是习近平的世界，我们都活在其中”。
如果如分析人士所料，习近平掌握谈判主导权，可能加深台湾与日本等美国亚洲盟友的不安。川普透露，习近平5月与他在北京会晤时，曾多次追问对台军售，以及美国协防台湾的决心；川普也把尚待批准的140亿美元对台军售案，形容为与北京谈判的筹码。
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复旦大学教授吴心伯表示，美中关系已更趋交易化。华盛顿可能想优先处理贸易，但对北京而言，美国对台湾的态度可能才是关键，“美方若肯在台湾问题上迁就中方的关切，中方也愿意在执法合作、采购美国农产品等其他问题上，回应美方的关切”。
华府也认为，习近平具备向伊朗施压、促使战事落幕的独特影响力，但北京目前未展现配合意愿。
路透本月稍早报导，北京正透过规避制裁的机制，向伊朗出售价值数十亿美元的商品。中国外交部表示不知情。美国上月扬言制裁与伊朗往来的国家，却尚未对德黑兰最大贸易伙伴中国采取行动。 0 | | | |
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