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scroll 0 1 上周，《麻省理工科技评论》为订阅用户举办了一场线上圆桌讨论，聊了一个最近被反复提起的问题：AI 真的可能杀死所有人吗？但 30 分钟显然不够，现场还有很多问题没来得及回答。于是，我们请编辑威尔・道格拉斯・海文（Will Douglas Heaven）和记者格蕾丝・哈金斯（Grace Huckins）挑出其中一些最值得聊的问题，继续作答。
Q1: 我会死吗？
会。人早晚都会死。至于你会怎么死，很遗憾，我这个记者还没有预知未来的本事。不过，AI 确实可能成为其中一个原因。AI 驱动的无人机已经在乌克兰造成过人员死亡，未来，针对医院等关键设施的 AI 网络攻击恐怕也难免会带来伤亡。
那 AI 有没有可能再往前一步，把我们所有人都杀掉？可能性要小得多。但这些年来，确实一直有人发出这样的警告。他们也许有点古怪，却又的确是最了解 AI 的一群人。至少我现在还没开始囤罐头，也没有打算去巴结哪个拥有私人地堡的超级富豪。不过过去几年有件事让我越来越难忽视：这些“末日派”此前对 AI 能力增长和对齐问题的一些判断，准得让人有点不舒服。当然，这不代表他们最悲观的那些预言也一定会成真。但至少，这件事已经值得认真对待了。
----格蕾丝・哈金斯（Grace Huckins）
你会不会因为 AI 而死？不能说完全没可能。比如你非常倒霉，碰上了未来某场极端事故：一群 AI 智能体对关键基础设施发起网络攻击。几年前，这听上去或许还像科幻情节，现在却没那么离谱了。也可能是 AI 设计出一种全新的病原体，并迅速在人群中传播；或者全球经济因为 AI 冲击而陷入严重危机，进一步引发冲突和饥荒。这些情况都不是完全无法想象，只是我认为概率更低。
但如果问的是：AI 会不会把整个人类都灭了？我不这么认为。除非我们真的进入末日科幻小说的世界，否则以今天 AI 的能力，以及这项技术目前的发展方向，很难找到一条现实可行的路径，让它把所有人都杀光。吓人的故事当然可以编出很多，但故事终究是故事。有人会说，哪怕最坏的情况听起来再荒唐，提前准备总没坏处。或许如此。但我更担心的是，一旦大家把注意力全放在“AI 灭绝人类”这种极端场景上，反而容易忽略眼前已经存在的问题，以及那些开发 AI 的公司正在带来的现实风险。
----威尔・道格拉斯・海文（Will Douglas Heaven）
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