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scroll 0 1 2026年5月14日，北京天坛祈年殿前。特朗普走下专车，抬头看了一眼这座六百年前的建筑，脱口而出："惊艳！大美中国！"随行的马斯克掏出手机拍照，库克则微笑着站在一旁，黄仁勋双手插在西装口袋里四处张望。
这支被外媒称为"企业家天团"的队伍——特斯拉、苹果、英伟达、高通、黑石、高盛——几乎涵盖了美国经济的半壁江山。
九年前，特朗普第一次访华，同样在人民大会堂受到隆重接待，也是同样笑容满面地称赞"中国很棒"。回国三个月后，他签署备忘录，对中国商品加征关税，拉开了人类经济史上规模最大的贸易战序幕。
这一次，他在华盛顿对新一轮中美会晤的红毯迎接，工作人员跪地小心翼翼地将红毯铺得尽量平整。对特朗普来说，今年以来各种场合对中国某种程度上的“谦卑”姿态，背后存在着一整套复杂的战略和思维。
1、来自商人的账本
特朗普作为一个商人的一切行为，归根结底在于他的资产负债表。
2025年初，特朗普第二任期开局，将对华关税一路推高至约167%。他以为这是一场速战速决的商战——美国是中国最大出口市场，只要打出关税牌，北京就会屈服。
结果恰恰相反。中方以关税、贸易、稀土出口管制等手段全面反制，展示"奉陪到底"的决心。
很快美方供应链告急，通胀抬头，消费者和进口商承担了大部分关税成本。2025年全年，中国贸易顺差不减反增，历史性地突破1万亿美元。
特朗普的关税战效果并不明显，反倒得罪了一众盟友。试图用关税战让制造业回流美国的计划，目前看来也还是遥遥无期。
这奠定了2026年末中期选举中他的潜在危机和劣势。这种劣势也构成了他2026年以来“韬光养晦”姿态特别强烈的前提。
从高调的斗争到“东西半球分治”，特朗普其实在这两年发生了巨大的态度转变，直接因素都是因为账本劣势和中期选举的担忧。
2026年2月，美国最高法院裁定他依据《国际紧急经济权力法》加征的部分关税违法，他最趁手的关税武器被司法系统缴械。到5月，因大规模退款，当月关税收入"基本为零"。
至此，特朗普的第一板斧其实几乎是打空了。这也是为什么2026年以来他显得如此“谦和”。
但想要斗争的姿态必须得有所展现，所以，在需要将剩余怒火宣泄出去的情况下，特朗普选择了抓走马杜罗、攻击伊朗。
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