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| | “AI空头”思考：大模型“难有护城河” | | | 华尔街日报 ｜ 2026-09-28 | | | |
| 声明： 本消息或因风格和篇幅原因进行过编辑，但未经核实，也不代表我们的立场、观点或建议。如有侵权，联系秒删。[ 使用条款 ] |
scroll 0 1 两位“AI空头”认为，超大规模云厂商增量ROIC已于2024年见顶并快速下滑，若趋势延续，2027年中期将跌破资本成本。大模型不存在护城河，token价格战不可避免，并将OpenAI比作“AI时代的WeWork”——预计三四年烧掉3000亿美元却迟迟不敢公开S-1。两人还揭示Muse等Agent产品背后仍有人工介入。
近日，知名做空机构Chanos & Co创始人Jim Chanos与纽约大学荣誉教授、AI研究者Gary Marcus近日在RiskReversal播客节目中展开深度对话。
Jim Chanos与Gary Marcus警示，AI建设周期面临资本回报下滑、模型同质化和融资依赖等问题。Chanos称云巨头增量ROIC（投入资本回报率）已自2024年见顶回落；Marcus认为大模型缺乏长期技术护城河，OpenAI或成“AI时代WeWork”。他还称，热门智能体Muse背后仍有人工参与，智能体大规模授权的安全风险值得审视。
两位长期唱空AI的人从财务和技术两个维度共同拆解AI泡沫。
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从左到右依次为Jim Chanos、主持人、Gary Marcus
云大厂的ROIC正在快速下滑
Jim Chanos表示，Chanos & Co从2025年初开始重点研究超大规模云厂商（Hyperscaler）的资本回报情况。增量投资资本回报率（ROIC）已于2024年见顶，此后持续快速下滑。
如果当前的下滑曲线延续，处于最有利投资位置的超大规模云厂商，其回报率将在2027年中期跌破加权平均资本成本（WACC）。我认为市场对此毫无准备。
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点击朱笔，直抒胸臆